Here we stand again, at the edge of what comes next. 2023 has been one of the most turbulent years for the crypto market since I started investing in this space in 2014. Bitcoin & cryptocurrency have been relentless in their fight for adoption, integration, and proper regulation. We now sit at the base of an impalpable peak; less than one month away from a supposed Blackrock BTC ETF approval, banks have now been green-lit to hold BTC on their balance sheets, all amidst a new senate proposal from Elizabeth Warren. (who is the absolute worst plutocrat; serving the bankers instead of people).
LF Performance – Quadruple Digits:
Laissez Faire has been performing nothing short of stellar, most notably outperforming BTC (the underlying benchmark) since it’s inception. $1,000 invested at the beginning of the fund’s inception is now $12,830, vs what would be $9,760 if you had bought Bitcoin at the bottom of the cycle. A lot of this is highlighted by LF’s profitable bear market navigation in 2022.
This is in line with it’s thesis of LF’s ability to normalize the volatility of BTC over a long period of time to create a more stable return curve, akin to ‘drawing a line through the sine wave’. I expect it to continue to outperform most asset classes in 2024, and navigate what could be potential recession and several risk events in the broader economy.
The Bitcoin ETFs – Blackrock is in the room:
Guys – Blackrock owns everything. Their entrance to this market could be one of the most consequential events in Bitcoin’s history.
Institutional Adoption / Regulation:
In 2020, when BTC was at $13,000 – I wrote about an increasing money supply, institutional adoption, and the direct correlation between that and the price of bitcoin. Shortly after, Bitcoin rose over 400% to $65,000. The market we’re currently in has echoes of this, and I think this is a valuable time to look to the past – before Tesla / Square / Microstrategy, and so many other large corporate players balance sheeted Bitcoin. We sit at another watershed moment now, where the access to this asset is very close to expanding at an exponential rate via the Blackrock ETF, improved regulations, sentiment restoring, and large players such as pension funds and hedgefunds re-entering the market.
Bitcoin as Digital Gold:
I think there is ample evidence to suggest that Bitcoin has achieved a degree of standing and adoption in that it can be a serious store of value. It is provably scarce, and the first digital asset to ever create and store value derived from energy. I encourage everyone to read this article from 2020 – which spells out the fundamental characteristics of Bitcoin.
The supply of Bitcoin is determined by miner block rewards, which half every four years. Bitcoin is inherently deflationary and scarce, like gold in the ground – but blocks on the internet. Miners are incentivized to use their compute power as they’re rewarded in BTC for doing so, and in turn that power the network of transactions.
Is Bitcoin exponential gold? Let’s take a look. Over the past five years (through November), Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio (5-year CAGR return divided by 5-year annualized volatility) has been competitive with gold, as well as many other “proven” asset classes. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/LlEoMSjTZu
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 7, 2023
Who controls the issuance of Bitcoin?
The network itself controls the issuance of Bitcoins, derived by consensus through all Bitcoin participants. Ever since Bitcoin was first designed, the following consensus rules exist to this day:
Any change to these parameters requires all Bitcoin participants to agree by consensus to approve the change.
Past halving event dates
Past halving price performance
It is always a debate on what Bitcoin will do in terms of pricing for a halving event. Some people believe that the halving is already priced in by the market and thus there’s no expectation for the price to do anything. Others believe that due to price equilibrium, a halving of supply should cause an increase in price if demand for Bitcoins is equal or greater than what it was before the halving event. Below is a chart showing past price performance of the last three halving events:
Overall, I’m very optimistic about 2024 being another breakout year for BTC – and while I believe there could be several risk events that lead to 40-50% drawdowns, it’s very likely BTC and LF close another positive year in 2024. The fundamentals in this market are incredibly bullish, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a triple digit year in 2024 for both LF and Bitcoin. The bear may be slain.
PS: Coinbase Migration
Coinbase has begun to cause issues and delays for withdrawals and deposits into the master fund. I’m currently evaluating other exchanges such as Kraken for more real-time institutional support. Now that the fund has become established and is expanding further, I think coinbase may not be the best long term partner. I will keep everyone abreast of this decision as it fundamentally changes one of the key risks to the fund, exchange risk. I will be incredibly diligent at choosing the correct exchange as to avoid anything akin to the horrors of FTX.